Short answer
Data centers are the largest driver of projected electricity demand growth on the ERCOT grid [4]. Recent forecasts far exceed the 85,508 MW record peak set in August 2023, though ERCOT says its 2026 preliminary forecast overstates growth [5]. In June 2025, Texas enacted SB 6, setting interconnection, cost and emergency rules for loads of 75 MW or more [1][3].
Projected demand growth
ERCOT's April 2025 forecast projected peak demand of about 218 gigawatts (GW) by 2031, compared with a record of 85.5 GW set in August 2023 [4]. An adjusted version of that forecast, which slowed the assumed growth of large loads such as data centers and cryptocurrency mines, put 2031 peak demand at 145 GW [4]. Data centers made up the largest share of projected growth in both versions [4].
In April 2026, ERCOT filed a preliminary forecast projecting peak demand of 367,790 megawatts (MW) in 2032, compared with the record of 85,508 MW [5]. ERCOT's chief executive said the agency believed the forecast was higher than expected future load growth, and state regulators said it needed refinement before it could be used for long-term planning [5].
Why the forecasts are uncertain
Forecasts rely partly on utility-reported requests from large customers, and those requests are not guarantees that projects will be built [5]. The Texas Tribune reported in April 2026 that about 410,000 MW of grid connection requests were pending, 87% of them from data centers [5]. In October 2025, Inside Climate News reported 189 GW of large-load requests, nearly 69% of them from data centers, and noted that a 2023 law (HB 5066) requires ERCOT to include prospective large users in its demand projections [3].
ERCOT told the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) at the commission's May 7, 2026, open meeting that it would propose adjusting the long-term load forecast, using either a forecast based on its "Batch Zero" large-load interconnection process or an adjusted forecast that discounts utility-reported figures based on historical realization rates; ERCOT said it preferred the Batch Zero approach [6]. At its June 18, 2026, open meeting, the PUCT adopted the Batch Zero approach and directed ERCOT to base the adjusted forecast on the Batch Zero Base Load figure, which ERCOT said would not be known until mid-August 2026 [8].
What SB 6 does
Senate Bill 6 of the 89th Legislature was signed on June 20, 2025, and took effect immediately [1]. It covers planning for, interconnection and operation of, and costs of serving certain large electrical loads [1]. Its provisions generally apply to loads of 75 MW or more, a threshold the PUCT may lower [3].
Transmission-voltage customers that interconnect in the ERCOT region after December 31, 2025, other than certain critical industrial loads and critical natural gas facilities, must have protocols and any necessary equipment in place so that their load can be curtailed during firm load-shed events [2][7]. ERCOT is also to develop a demand-reduction service, procured competitively from loads of at least 75 MW, with at least 24 hours' notice [2][7]. New large-load customers face a minimum $100,000 interconnection study fee, must show site control, and must disclose similar interconnection requests elsewhere in Texas [2][3]. The law also directs regulators to review how transmission costs are allocated so they are not shifted to residential and small commercial customers, and requires PUCT approval for certain new arrangements pairing a large load with an existing power plant [3].
Implementation status
SB 6 left many details to rulemaking. In October 2025, PUCT staff expected to complete rules throughout 2025 and 2026, with work on transmission cost allocation expected to continue until December 2026 [3]. ERCOT's April 2026 preliminary forecast was filed under requirements set by SB 6 [5].
Common questions
- What is Texas SB 6?
- A 2025 state law, signed June 20, 2025, that sets planning, interconnection, operating and cost rules for large electricity users such as data centers [1][3].
- What counts as a large load under SB 6?
- Generally a load of 75 MW or more, though the Public Utility Commission of Texas may lower that threshold [3].
- Can ERCOT cut power to data centers in an emergency?
- Yes, for new large loads. Transmission-voltage customers that interconnect after December 31, 2025, other than certain critical facilities, must be able to be curtailed during firm load-shed events [2][7].
- How much will Texas electricity demand grow?
- Estimates vary widely. ERCOT's 2025 forecast projected 218 GW by 2031 (145 GW adjusted) [4]; its 2026 preliminary forecast projected 367,790 MW by 2032, which ERCOT says overstates likely growth [5].
Sources
- SB 6, 89th Legislature (R): Bill History, Texas Legislature Online, 2025-06-20
- Texas law gives grid operator power to disconnect data centers during crisis, Utility Dive, 2025-06-25
- Texas Grid Operators and Regulators Iron Out New Rules for Data Centers, Inside Climate News, 2025-10-10
- Texas could see energy demand double by 2031, Spectrum News, 2025-04-14
- Texas grid operator forecasts massive growth in demand but says data is likely flawed, The Texas Tribune, 2026-04-17
- Item 11: CEO Update (Board of Directors Meeting, June 1-2, 2026), ERCOT, 2026-06-01
- S.B. No. 6 (Enrolled version), Texas Legislature Online, 2025
- ERCOT Monthly, June 2026, ERCOT, 2026-07-10