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Does Texas have enough water, and how is it paying for more?

By the editors of Moria Media  ·  Updated

Short answer

Texas projects a widening water gap. The 2027 State Water Plan, adopted in July 2026, estimates a drought-of-record shortage of 5.8 million acre-feet per year by 2080 and about $174 billion in needed projects [3][4][11]. In November 2025, voters approved Proposition 4, dedicating up to $1 billion a year in existing sales tax revenue to the Texas Water Fund [6][10].

The state water plan

The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) adopts the state water plan. The 2022 plan projected that, in a repeat of the worst recorded drought, water user groups would face a shortage of 3.1 million acre-feet per year in 2020, rising to 6.9 million acre-feet per year in 2070 [1]. It estimated the recommended projects would cost $80 billion in 2018 dollars [1].

The TWDB posted a draft 2027 State Water Plan for public comment on April 16, 2026, and adopted a Phase I version on July 23, 2026, on an accelerated schedule tied to state financing commitments [2][5][11]. An amended version is tentatively scheduled for board consideration in December 2026, ahead of a January 5, 2027 statutory deadline [2][11].

Projected shortages and costs

The 2027 plan projects the state's population will grow from 34.2 million in 2030 to 52.3 million in 2080 [3]. In a drought of record, the projected shortage rises from about 3.6 million acre-feet per year in 2030 to 5.8 million in 2080 [4][11]. Existing supplies are projected to fall about 10% over that period while demand rises about 6% [3][5].

The plan's recommended strategies would add almost 7.6 million acre-feet per year by 2080 at an estimated cost of $174 billion in 2023 dollars, more than double the 2022 plan's figure [3][11]. Without them, a severe drought could cause an estimated $91 billion in economic damage in 2030 and $177 billion per year by 2080 [3].

The 2025 water funding measures

Senate Bill 7, signed June 20, 2025, addresses oversight and financing of water infrastructure under the TWDB [7]. Most of it took effect September 1, 2025, but three sections take effect September 1, 2027, only if voters approved HJR 7, a constitutional amendment dedicating part of state sales and use tax revenue to the Texas water fund [7].

Proposition 4 on the November 2025 ballot dedicates up to $1 billion a year in existing state sales tax revenue to the Texas Water Fund for 20 years, starting in 2027, with no new tax [6]. Money transfers only in years when sales tax collections exceed $46.5 billion [6]. At least half is for new water supplies, such as desalination, reuse, conservation and aquifer storage, with the rest for water infrastructure [9]. Reporting Texas said the money would not be available until 2029 and that lawmakers separately approved $2.5 billion for water infrastructure [8].

Did voters approve it?

Yes. Voters approved Proposition 4 on November 4, 2025, with about 70% voting in favor, according to unofficial results [9][10]. All 17 proposed amendments passed that year, with turnout just under 16% of registered voters [10]. Voters first created the Texas Water Fund in 2023 with nearly 78% support [6].

Estimates of total need exceed the new funding. Texas 2036 estimated the state needs nearly $154 billion over 50 years for water infrastructure [6].

Common questions

How big is the projected Texas water shortage?
The 2027 State Water Plan projects a drought-of-record shortage of about 5.8 million acre-feet per year by 2080 [4][11]. The 2022 plan projected 6.9 million acre-feet per year by 2070 [1].
Did Texas voters approve Proposition 4 in 2025?
Yes. Voters approved it on November 4, 2025 [9][10].
Does Proposition 4 raise taxes?
No. It dedicates up to $1 billion a year from existing state sales tax revenue, only when collections exceed $46.5 billion [6].
How much will the water plan cost?
About $174 billion (in 2023 dollars) for the 2027 plan's recommended projects, up from $80 billion (in 2018 dollars) in the 2022 plan [1][3][11].

Sources

  1. Water for Texas: 2022 State Water Plan, Executive Summary, Texas Water Development Board, 2022
  2. 2027 State Water Plan, Texas Water Development Board, 2026
  3. Texas board approves state water plan with $174 billion price tag, The Bond Buyer, 2026-07-24
  4. Texas Water Plan Shows $174B Price Tag and Growing Supply Gap, Texas Policy Research, 2026-04-23
  5. Texas releases $174 billion draft water plan amid mounting supply pressure, Smart Water Magazine, 2026-04-22
  6. Should Texas spend $20 billion to secure its water supply?, The Texas Tribune, 2025-10-17
  7. SB 7, 89th Legislature (R): Bill History, Texas Legislature Online, 2025-06-20
  8. Texas's $20 Billion Water Fund Approved by Voters, Reporting Texas, 2025-11-21
  9. Rural Texas won $223 million to fix water pipes after 2023 vote, The Texas Tribune, 2025-11-04
  10. All 17 Texas Constitutional Amendments Pass in 2025 Election, Texas Policy Research, 2025-11-05
  11. Water for Texas: 2027 State Water Plan (Phase I), Texas Water Development Board, 2026-07-23